26 research outputs found

    Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer : development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

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    Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest-namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial-ENTHUSE M1-in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0.791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0.743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3.32, 95% CI 2.39-4.62, p Interpretation Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer.Peer reviewe

    Heterogeneous ensembles for predicting survival of metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer patients [version 2; referees: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

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    Ensemble methods have been successfully applied in a wide range of scenarios, including survival analysis. However, most ensemble models for survival analysis consist of models that all optimize the same loss function and do not fully utilize the diversity in available models. We propose heterogeneous survival ensembles that combine several survival models, each optimizing a different loss during training. We evaluated our proposed technique in the context of the Prostate Cancer DREAM Challenge, where the objective was to predict survival of patients with metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer from patient records of four phase III clinical trials. Results demonstrate that a diverse set of survival models were preferred over a single model and that our heterogeneous ensemble of survival models outperformed all competing methods with respect to predicting the exact time of death in the Prostate Cancer DREAM Challenge

    Heterogeneous ensembles for predicting survival of metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer patients [version 3; referees: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

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    Ensemble methods have been successfully applied in a wide range of scenarios, including survival analysis. However, most ensemble models for survival analysis consist of models that all optimize the same loss function and do not fully utilize the diversity in available models. We propose heterogeneous survival ensembles that combine several survival models, each optimizing a different loss during training. We evaluated our proposed technique in the context of the Prostate Cancer DREAM Challenge, where the objective was to predict survival of patients with metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer from patient records of four phase III clinical trials. Results demonstrate that a diverse set of survival models were preferred over a single model and that our heterogeneous ensemble of survival models outperformed all competing methods with respect to predicting the exact time of death in the Prostate Cancer DREAM Challenge

    Classification of Blood Regions in IVUS Images Using Three Dimensional Brushlet Expansions

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    The presence of non-coherent blood speckle patterns makes the assessment of lumen size in intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) images a challenging problem, especially for images acquired with recent high frequency transducers. In this paper, we present a robust three-dimensional (3D) feature extraction algorithm based on the expansion of IVUS cross-sectional images and pullback directions onto an orthonormal complex brushlet basis. Several features are selected from the projections of low-frequency 3D brushlet coefficients. These representations are used as inputs to a neural network that is trained to classify blood maps on IVUS images. We evaluated the algorithm performance using repeated randomized experiments on sub-samples to validate the quantification of the blood maps when compared to expert manual tracings of 258 frames collected from three patients. Our results demonstrate that the proposed features extracted in the brushlet domain capture well the non-coherent structures of blood speckle, enabling identification of blood pools and enhancement of the lumen area
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